Survival: Living Beyond Normalcy Bias

By Femi Fadipe

In whatever age group you find yourself, if you can read this, you are alive. If you can’t read this, you are alive as well. And you will do all that you can to remain that way. At some time in our lives we have had our life threatened by one thing or the other, it could be: a sickness, an accident, an injury, an economic downturn, a fight, a robbery attack, or being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Whatever it was, we played an active and important role in maintaining our life through the ordeal. In fact, our survival was the prime-mover of every of action we took.

We can go on and on in discussing about living, survival and life; but there is limit to what we can discuss on how or what will end that life. (That is, we can not tell specifically what will indeed threaten our life to such a degree that it will ultimately lead to our demise). Because the power of subsistence always hold sway. This presumption that life will maintain as it is; is responsible for how people underestimate a crisis and its possible effect. Leading people to fall into an illusionary state that “Everything is fine”. Thus, people by so, fall into a false sense of security. When this occur, it leads to inability to take massive action in the face of crisis. The assumption that is made in most cases is that “since a crisis never has occurred, it never will occur”. This results in the inability of people to cope with crisis when it occurs. When people have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before; and also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation; then these people are suffering from a mental condition called “Normalcy Bias”.

History has shown that when things seem so peaceful, it is simply because there are so controlled. This is a natural precursor for things exploding out of control. Today the world is enmeshed in one kind of crisis or the other; and as usual, people’s resolve to survive in extreme conditions is always called to bear. In spite of this, most people who fall victim of disasters tend to underestimate or regard as nothing the extent of such disasters and the turn it might take on them. Many of such default positions can be heard in speeches such as:

1. “That can’t happen here” 
2. “We are in the north, the war is in the South, there’s no cause to worry” 
3. “The Government has it all covered” 
4. “This a tribal or ethnic problem, our tribes does not fight” 
5. “Disasters happens only in some areas it wont get to us” 
6. “We are rich, it is all covered” 
7. “It is an Arabian or European or American or African problem” 
8. “Our deity will protect us” or “Our diety will save our us” 

For example, think about the Jewish populations of World War II. As Barton Biggs reports in his book, Wealth, War, and Wisdom: "By the end of 1935, 100,000 Jews had left Germany, but 450,000 still remained; Wealthy Jewish families kept thinking and hoping that the worst was over. Many of the German Jews, brilliant, cultured, and cosmopolitan as they were, were too complacent. They had been in Germany so long and were so well established, they simply could not believe there was going to be a crisis that would endanger them. They were too comfortable. They believed the Nazi's anti-semitism was an episodic event and that Hitler's bark was worse than his bite. They reacted sluggishly to the rise of Hitler for completely understandable but tragically erroneous reasons. Events moved much faster than they could imagine." This is one of the most tragic examples of the devastating effects of the "normalcy bias" the world has ever seen. Just think about what was going on at the time. Jews were arrested, beaten, taxed, robbed, and jailed for no reason other than the fact that they practiced a particular religion. As a result, they were shipped off to concentration camps. Their houses and businesses were seized. Yet most Jews still didn't leave Nazi Germany, because they simply couldn't believe that things would get as bad as they did. That's the normalcy bias... with devastating results.

Similar situations can be cited in Africa: Sierra-Leone, Liberia, Somalia, Rwanda, Uganda to mention a few; and recently, Nigeria. It behooves one to tell that that country is indeed in a precarious situation. At the moment, some areas in the northern part of the country is torn apart in crises (in what most people believe is) initiated by a sect - “Boko Haram”. (It seeks to islamatize, as well as end western education inclusion in the nation). In the melee, innocent people have been caught right in middle of the crises, with no place to go and of cause, no place to run to; the situation has set a tone of intense apprehension, fear, confusion and sorrow across the country. As it were, even with the spate of bombings, killings and antecedent indicators that the crisis may escalate, and snowball down south; most people interpret the situation in the most optimistic way possible. Probably, it is due to the fact that no one in their family or close associate has been caught in the killing spree. As clearly put by Richard Bauch: “The worst lies are the lies we tell ourselves. We live in denial of what we do, even what we think…” And this very notion is what makes the normalcy bias syndrome boom within the people in superlative proportion thereby causing unprecedented casualties.

Therefore, continuous denial in the spate of a pending or looming disaster is a mental disorder that needs to be corrected within oneself, so that one can accurately see that: “though the disaster or crisis is happening somewhere else, it might as well get so close and so personal that it might affect me and all my loved ones”. Armed with this knowledge, the shroud of normalcy bias over ones consciousness begins to wane; hence the power to make effort, prepare and move in the direction to alleviate the loss (of life and property) in the midst of the disaster to a large extent is under ones control: Most especially before the crisis hits ones doorstep. In the case of Nigeria, for families living in the states where sporadic bombings rage, and for those watching on TV at the far end of the county, it is expedient that individual should “make effort, prepare and move in the direction off arms way”, and the negative effects it might cause. This can be understood through these tips:

1. Preparation, including publicly acknowledging the possibility of disaster and forming contingency plans 
2. Be vigilant at all times. Keep warning, including issuing clear, unambiguous, and frequent warnings and helping the public to understand and believe them 
3. As there is a pattern of church bombings, church programs should be reviewed and decentralized, and informal (breaking away from the set mode of services). People can meet at homes it should be informal and inadvertently or employing the advantages of technology. 
4. While everyone is not equally empowered financially, consideration should be given to relocation out of trouble zones (when and if necessary), most especially from locations where violent agitations are pronounced. 
5. Stay away from crowded areas, though the bombers appears not sophisticated; roadside bombs can be in sack bags, paper bags and nylon bags. Stay clear and run away, whenever you sight bags lying down helplessly along gutters, walkways and (or) in the bush. 
6. Educate people as much as possible of the importance of their safety and how to keep themselves secured in the midst of the crisis. 

Since it is natural to hope for the best and keep trust in divinity, people are much better when they plan and prepare for any mishap that may appear devastating to their lives. Because of the human condition called normalcy bias, trying to warn people to be prepared of a probable crisis can be daunting and frustrating. The essence is to let everyone know that normalcy bias can adversely affect their choices, their actions and their lives now! It is therefore worthwhile to take a moment to consider whether normalcy bias is not interrupting your ability to see and predict potential hazards in your own life. Although you may try to warn others, the reality is some people will never take preventative action even when they are staring crisis in the face.

We Are Here: The Pale Blue Dot

 Carl Sagan (1934-1996)

We succeeded in taking that picture [from deep space], and, if you look at it, you see a dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives. The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam.

The earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light.
Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity -- in all this vastness -- there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us. It's been said that astronomy is a humbling, and I might add, a character-building experience. To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.

Life Ebbs Away

In 2005, a commercial airplane owned by Sosoliso Airlines coming from Abuja, crashed landed killing all but two passengers on board. The Port-Harcourt inbound flight had 75 school children and the best of our country men and women on board, including the famous Pastor Bimbo Odukoya. It was a sad moment for the country then, and it still is. When on Sunday, 3rd June 2012, another commercial airline (Dana Air) crashed into two-storey buildings, killing all on board; not sparing those it met on its path. The grief that followed, knew no bounds.

With Sosoliso, the nation grew intensely agitated over the spate of plane crashes, the flights of Bell-view, ADC, ChanChangi also added to the death toll. The Nigerian people called for sack of the then aviation minister, it was shortly after the Sosoliso crash, that President Olusegun Obasanjo rallied around and called for a national debate that hosted all stakeholders within and outside of the aviation industry with the aim of putting a standstill to the incessant mishaps, plane crashes and the unnecessary loss of lives. This confab was televised live and broadcasted on radio. I had followed it intensely on radio in 2005. In the conference, all key participants that were called upon aired their views on the way forward on the matter. The revelations were startling; issues were raised appropriately and solutions were equally brought to bear (it covered all aviation technology, administration, engineering, maintenance, funding, investment and management). If the solutions reached during the debate were adequately implemented, perhaps the issues of plane crashes would have been nipped in the bud. But it wasn't. The Dana Airline crash that killed all 159 passengers has proved beyond doubt that we have not learnt from the past or to say the least, we do not want to learn and make required adjustment. And that is the issue that brought me to do this write-up.

It is sad, I wish I had written this note before the recent plane crash, but just like everyone else, I am awakened from my sleep when calamity befalls species of my own kind. And right then and then, I join the crowd in the same rhythmic fashion asking the question: “WHY?” One can not stop asking the question “why?” It is about the only kind of question that seeks to consolidates our human limitations in sympathy to a condition we can not control. As the cries, wailing and sorrow fills the heart of the families of the dead, so also is the extent to which the question “why?” goes. And here I am, asking the question.

Many a time we feel we know what others go through when they are in the middle of their grief, we feel we know but we do not know. We assume a position that negates our own internal emotions and construct. We seek to comfort, whereas we are equally quick to justify their dead. We have become so pathetic, and getting increasingly so, such that our “institutions” that claims it stands for fortitude, prides on the bloodshed and tragedy that befalls mortal men. You hear them chorus, it is “the last day such things are bound to happen”, “our sins are colossal, we are being punished”…. It is as though the more “judgment” and misfortune that befalls man, the more refreshed we get and the more concerted we are in our effort to live arguably in that condition. But the dead are gone; the living can not go to them, neither can they return to us. In spite of this the living knows death is eminent, but never ascribes death on his/herself; however, when others far from them dies, there is always something spiritual and panoramic about it.

Our institutions are failing; our systems are falling and for such, death has got no place to hide. In sympathy to our systemic rot, death comes alive! It makes it rounds and makes monumental harvest in an already failing or failed system. It is not some god or some fairy demon seeking judgmental glorification, it is our life ebbing out in quick succession through the lives of others caught-up in death’s dragnet. When next you hear, see and witness a mishap or calamities happen, resulting to loss of lives, it is life leaving your body in trickles. Have we gotten to the brink of decadence? I suppose we have. Nevertheless, you and I have the power to stop wars, eliminate air planes dropping down from the sky, eradicate the accidents on our roads, end child mortality and maternal deaths and so on, and bring hope to our dying world.

We need to change our ideals and the ideologies of what keeps our world running in this present and pathetic state. "The earth does not belong to man, man belongs to the earth". While religious parlance may hold sway in rigidity and dogmas; individuals should seek to redefine the context of how they live and what manner of change they want to see in the world. Though our world has taken up a lot of illusionary status, giving rise to distorted realities, we must make efforts (individually) to redefine our reality context. Though the world today still stands as it is; as clearly put in the words of Jiddu Krishnamurti:

“the crisis is a crisis in consciousness, a crisis that cannot anymore accept the old norms, the old patterns, the ancient traditions. And considering what the world is now with all their misery conflict, destructive brutality, aggression, and so on, man is still as he was: is still brutal, violent, aggressive, acquisitive, competitive, and he has built a society along these lines.”

Yet a society that negates all the these ills can be built, starting with you! Man and his society are composite beings, and their association is one of symbiosis. We all want to live; but we may as well die in the process, but how?, we do not know. It may as well be in the area or in the place we assume we do not need to make a change in.